World War 3 In 2024?
The 3 Most Likely Culprits…
With the current state of the world, many people are concerned with the possibility of a global conflagration. Just like the global pandemic in March 2020, things could go downhill very quickly.
Several flashpoints could potentially lead to a global conflict, and in this article, we will explore three most likely culprits for WW3 in the next 12 months.
In no particular order…
#1 “The Bear Bites the West”: Putin Attacks A NATO Country
Emboldened by the West’s flagging resolve in the war for Ukraine, the Russians could miscalculate.
A direct military confrontation with a NATO member, perhaps over the Baltic states or Poland, could ignite a conflagration that would quickly engulf Europe.
Imagine Russian tanks rolling through Vilnius, triggering Article 5 of the NATO treaty and drawing the United States and the rest of the alliance into a devastating war. The ripple effects, economic and humanitarian, would be catastrophic.
Leaked documents show that Germany is preparing for how to react against Russian incursions into NATO territories. The scenario is such that in February 2024, Russia will be calling for 200,000 additional troops.
Putin has dismissed the idea of Russia attacking a NATO country, stating that Russia has no geopolitical, economic, political, or military interest in fighting NATO countries.
However, since Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine, NATO has significantly reinforced its deterrence and defense posture, considering Russia to be the most significant and direct threat to its security and peace.
Despite Putin’s denial, his readiness to demilitarize Russia’s borders with neighboring NATO members is seen as evidence that the decision to invade Ukraine was not provoked by NATO’s actions.
#2 “Dancing/Dueling Dragons”: U.S. and Chinese Planes/Ships Collide
The simmering tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, pose another existential threat.
An accidental collision between American and Chinese warplanes over the disputed South China Sea, particularly if it resulted in casualties, could spiral into a wider conflict.
Mistrust and miscalculation fueled by nationalism and technological rivalry could quickly escalate a minor incident into a full-blown war, with incalculable consequences for the global order.
In addition to tensions in Taiwan and Japan, the friction between the United States and China in the South China Sea has been rising due to China’s territorial claims and militarization of the region.
The United States has challenged China’s assertive territorial claims and land reclamation efforts and has expressed concerns about China’s “dangerous and unlawful” actions in the South China Sea.
The Philippines, which has a mutual defense treaty with the United States, has warned that the skirmishes between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea could spark a major conflict at “any time”.
China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea and its estimated 11 billion barrels of oil have led to territorial disputes with other countries in the region, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
The situation in the South China Sea is a potential flashpoint for conflict between the United States and China and could draw in other naval powers.
#3 Blood-stained Sands: Arab Countries Attack Israel
The Israel-Hamas war, which has already been ongoing for several months, presents a persistent risk of escalation in the Middle East.
The conflict’s potential to draw in the U.S. and Iran further underscores its significance as a global risk factor.
The volatile Middle East, with its long history of conflict and fragile alliances, remains a tinderbox.
An escalation of violence between Israel and its Arab neighbors, triggered by a perceived escalation in Israeli settlements or a retaliatory strike for Hamas rocket attacks, could ignite a regional war.
With powerful players like Iran and Saudi Arabia potentially drawn in, the potential for civilian casualties, oil price shocks, and wider destabilization is terrifying.
These are just three potential triggers that could potentially cause chaos. While it’s impossible to predict the future, we should be ready for any eventuality.
Leaders across the globe must tread carefully, prioritizing dialogue and conflict resolution over the drums of war.
In war, there’s no such thing as winners.
